Capital Gold Group Report: WORLD GROWTH ‘WORST FOR 60 YEARS’

Developed economies such as Japan, the US and UK are in recession

World economic growth is set to fall to just 0.5% this year, its lowest rate since World War II, warns the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In October, the IMF had predicted world output would increase by 2.2% in 2009.

It now projects the UK, which recently entered recession, will see its economy shrink by 2.8% next year, the worst contraction among advanced nations.

The IMF says financial markets remain under stress and the global economy has taken a “sharp turn for the worse”.

In another gloomy view of the UK economy, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said Britain would be saddled with government debt for more than 20 years.

IFS director Robert Chote warned that spending would have to be cut or taxes raised by more than planned to allow public finances to recover.

The predictions came as Pascal Lamy, the director general of the World Trade Organization, urged countries not to react to the global economic crisis by resorting to protectionism.

Speaking from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Lamy said such a move would be “a big mistake”.

‘Virtual halt’

According to the IMF, the outcome of the economic slowdown has been to send global output and trade plummeting.

The current projection is a protracted recession and we have not reached the bottom yet Justin Yifu Lin, World Bank Protectionism haunts the economy UK debt ‘will last 20 years’

“We now expect the global economy to come to a virtual halt,” said IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard in a statement.

The IMF says that despite a number of policy moves, which have been carried out by many states, financial strains remain.

International co-operation is needed now to draw up new policy initiatives, and for capital injections to support “viable financial institutions”.

Meanwhile, it predicts that the eurozone economy is poised to shrink by 2.0% in 2009 and the US economy by 1.6%.

Banking crisis

The report comes on the same day the International Labour Organization said that as many as 51 million jobs worldwide could be lost this year because of the global economic crisis.

It had been hoped that growth in developing nations would continue at a steady pace and help offset the recession in developed nations such as the US and UK.

But the seemingly endless crisis in the banking system has put paid to that notion.

Countries such as China are now struggling with a collapse in demand from their primary export markets.

Meanwhile, developed economies such as Japan, Spain, the US and UK are in recession, with new job losses being announced on a daily basis.

‘Uncertainty’

The IMF says that growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to slow sharply, from 6.25% in 2008 to 3.25% in 2009.

It cites the main reasons for the drop as being falling export demand, lower commodity prices and much tighter external financing constraints.

If the recession deepens in 2009, as many forecasters expect, the global jobs crisis will worsen sharply International Labour Organization Global job losses ‘could hit 51m’

The IMF points out that policy efforts to tackle the downturn so far – such as liquidity support, deposit insurance and recapitalisation – have been drawn up to address the immediate threats to financial stability.

However, it says that these emergency measures “have done little to resolve the uncertainty about the long-term solvency of financial institutions”.

“The process of loss recognition and restructuring of bad loans is still incomplete,” says the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update.

‘Bad bank’

The IMF says future co-ordinated financial policies should concentrate on recognising the scale of financial institutions’ losses and on providing public support to those institutions that are viable.

“Such policies should be supported by measures to resolve insolvent banks and set up public agencies to dispose of the bad debts, including possibly through a ‘bad bank’ approach, while safeguarding public resources.”

The IMF says the global economy is projected to experience a gradual recovery in 2010, with growth picking up to 3%.

“However, the outlook is highly uncertain, and the timing and pace of the recovery depend critically on strong policy actions,” it warns.

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Capital Gold Group Report: Gold Jumps as Government Spending Boosts Inflation-Hedge Demand

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — Gold rose to the highest closing price in almost five months in New York on speculation that government spending will spur inflation, boosting demand for the precious metal as hedge. Silver also gained.

Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, rose 4.7 percent last week to a record 832.6 metric tons. In 2008, the metal advanced for the eighth straight year as U.S. equity and commodity indexes lost more than 30 percent.

“Massive injections of liquidity into the global banking system will serve to drive gold prices higher,” said Dennis Gartman, an economist and the editor of the Gartman Letter in Suffolk, Virginia.

Gold futures for April delivery climbed $13, or 1.4 percent, to close at $910.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division, the highest for a most-active contract since Aug. 1. The price reached $918.20, the highest intraday price since Oct. 10.

Silver futures for March delivery gained 17 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $12.11 an ounce. The metal slumped 24 percent in 2008, while gold gained 5.5 percent.

U.S. President Barack Obama today urged swift congressional action on an $825 billion recovery package. Lawmakers already have spent $350 billion of a $700 billion financial-rescue fund to shore up lenders.

Banks worldwide have posted more than $1 trillion in credit losses and writedowns related to the credit crisis. The Federal Reserve has slashed its benchmark interest rate to almost zero percent to spur growth as the yearlong U.S. recession deepened.

Gold may average $975 in the second quarter, possibly topping $1,000, on demand for a store of value, Deutsche Bank AG said in a report on Jan. 23.

“The eventual stimulus plan will weaken the dollar to support gold,” Deutsche Bank said.

The dollar fell as much as 1.4 percent against a weighted basket of six major currencies.

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Capital Gold Group Report: GOLD NEARS $900

Gold Futures Climb on Demand for Haven After Equities Slide

By Halia Pavliva Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) — Gold prices rose to a two-week high on demand for a haven as global equities tumbled amid the recession and a slump in corporate earnings. Silver was little changed.

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index today dropped to the lowest since April 2003. This week, the MSCI World Index of shares has declined almost 6 percent, while gold has rallied 4.3 percent.

“There is a lot of fear,” said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois, “Things are bad here, but they are worse” in Europe, he said.

Gold futures for February delivery climbed $17, or 2 percent, to $875.80 an ounce at 10:05 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the price reached $884, the highest since Jan. 5.

Gold rose 5.5 percent last year, the eighth straight gain, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 38 percent.

“We are back to the same situation where money has nowhere to go and gold remains the safe haven of choice,” Miguel Perez-Santalla, sales vice president at Heraeus Precious Metals Management in New York, said in an e-mail.

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Capital Gold Group Report: Gold Rises on Worries Recession will Deepen

By Moming Zhou

Last update: 1:48 p.m. EST Jan. 20, 2009

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold futures rose Tuesday for a second session, ending above $850 an ounce for the first time in more than a week as worries that the global economic recession will deepen raised the metal’s appeal as a safe haven. Gold for February delivery rose $15.30, or 1.8%, to close at $855.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, ending above $850 for the first time since Jan. 9.
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Capital Gold Group Report: Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion

By Henry Meyer and Ayesha Daya

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — U.S. financial losses from the credit crisis may reach $3.6 trillion, suggesting the banking system is “effectively insolvent,” said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“I’ve found that credit losses could peak at a level of $3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers,” Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today. “If that’s true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.”

Losses and writedowns at financial companies worldwide have risen to more than $1 trillion since the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

President Barack Obama will have to use as much as $1 trillion of public funds to shore up the capitalization of the banking sector, following the $350 billion injection by the Bush administration, Roubini told Bloomberg News. Congress last year approved a $700 billion rescue fund, of which half remains to be disbursed.

Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. bank by assets, posted a quarterly loss of $1.79 billion last week, its first since 1991, and received $138 billion in emergency government funds. Citigroup Inc. posted an $8.29 billion fourth-quarter loss, completing its worst year, and plans to split in two under Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit’s plan to rebuild a capital base eroded by the credit crisis.

‘Bankrupt’ System

“The problems of Citi, Bank of America and others suggest the system is bankrupt,” Roubini said. “In Europe, it’s the same thing.”

Stocks in Europe, Canada and Brazil dropped yesterday on speculation government efforts to shore up the financial industry will fail to stem the deepening global recession. The U.K.’s Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said it expects to post a loss of as much as 28 billion pounds ($41 billion) for 2008 and the government got ready to raise its stake in the lender. . .

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Capital Gold Group Report: S&P 500 Erases Half its Gain since Nov. 11 – Bearish Signal to Chart Readers

By Elizabeth Stanton and Jeff Kearns

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index wiped out more than half its gain since rallying from 11-year low in November, a sign the benchmark for U.S. equities may drop more.

The S&P 500 fell 3.4 percent to 842.62 yesterday, below the 843.57 midpoint of its 24 percent advance from Nov. 20 to Jan. 6, and was little changed today. To technical analysts, who make predictions based on price and volume history, a so-called 50 percent retracement suggests selling momentum may accelerate.

“Any time you break a level, it does open the risk for follow-through,” said Roger Volz, senior vice president at Hampton Securities Inc. in New York and a technical analyst since 1982. “At this point there is probably more risk, given the weakness in the financial sector.”

The index decreased as much as 3 percent to 817.04 today before recovering to 843.74, up 0.1 percent. The intraday low was below another technical level, 818.5, representing a 61.8 percent retracement of the rally based on intraday closing prices.

For the second straight day, the S&P 500 closed just above 842.44, the 50 percent retracement level based on intraday prices, and one the index hasn’t closed below since Dec. 2.

U.S. stocks fell yesterday after a government report showed retail sales slid at more than twice the rate forecast by economists. Financial shares led the decline as Citigroup Inc. moved toward breaking itself up to restore profitability. The KBW Bank Index fell to its lowest close in 13 years.

More Sellers

“It’s important for it to hold right in this area and I’d hope it would, but who knows in this kind of environment,” said Ken Brusda, who manages $700 million at North Star Asset Management in Menasha, Wisconsin. “If it drops below this then from a technical standpoint I’m sure there would be sellers.”

The S&P 500 sank 38 percent last year, its steepest retreat since 1937, amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the first simultaneous recessions in the U.S., Japan and Europe since World War II.

The benchmark index rebounded in December as President-elect Barack Obama proposed fiscal stimulus measures and the Federal Reserve cut its short-term interest rate to as low as zero percent.

On Sept. 17, the S&P 500 retraced half of its gain from the five-year bull market ended in October 2007. The index then tumbled another 35 percent to an 11-year low of 752.44 on Nov. 20 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the government takeover of American International Group Inc. pushed credit costs higher.

Financial stocks have plunged 63 percent in the last year, the worst performance among 10 industry groups in the S&P 500. None of the 81 companies in the S&P 500 Financials Index has advanced during that period.

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Capital Gold Group Report: Gold Trading Increased 20% Last Year on Haven Buying, IFSL Says

By Nicholas Larkin

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) — Gold trading climbed 20 percent last year as the global economic slowdown increased the metal’s appeal as an investment haven, said International Financial Services London. Silver trading also rose.

Last year, 23.2 billion ounces of gold worth $20.2 trillion was traded, compared with 19.3 billion ounces in 2007, Marko Maslakovic, senior economist of the London-based IFSL, said today by phone. IFSL, an independent organization, promotes British financial services worldwide.

About $29 trillion was wiped off equities last year, while central banks around the world cut interest rates in an attempt to end the worst financial crisis since World War II. Gold reached a record $1,032.70 an ounce in March and averaged $872.10 in 2008, up 25 percent from the previous year.

“The traditional ‘safe-haven’ appeal of precious metals has attracted many investors to this asset class,” Maslakovic said in a separate report that he wrote.

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Capital Gold Group Report: Gold rush erupts over financial crisis

By Nick Gardner

January 10, 2009 12:01am THE global financial crisis has sparked a new gold rush.

Worried investors seeking a safe home for their money are ploughing billions of dollars into the precious metal in a bid to preserve their wealth.

Demand has now reached such unprecedented levels that the Perth Mint, Australia’s biggest wholesaler of gold coins and bars, has been forced to ration its sales.

Perth Mint’s bullion sales rose 194 per cent in the December quarter compared with the corresponding period in 2007, while silver bullion sales were up 140 per cent.

The mint has suspended sales of all gold bars and all bullion coins – except its 1oz “Kangaroo” gold bullion coin.

On Monday, after a three-month suspension, it will expand its range of bullion coins for sale but the restrictions remain in place for minted gold bullion bars so the mint can sell some gold to as many customers as possible.

“We are working three shifts a day, six days a week, and still can’t keep up with demand,” Perth Mint CEO Ed Harbuz said. “I’ve never known anything like this in the precious metals market.

“We would be working Sundays too but we are having difficulty getting enough staff.”

Non-minted gold in the form of cast bars produced by Perth Mint’s local refinery can still be bought, although customers who want the bigger bars often have to wait several weeks.

One customer recently bought $500,000 worth of bullion and wanted it delivered so he could hold it personally.

“For very big orders we normally keep the gold in our depository for security reasons,” Mr Harbuz said.

“Orders of $10 million or more are not unusual. Often the orders are much larger if we are dealing with pension funds or institutional investors.”

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Capital Gold Group Report: U.S. Payrolls Post Biggest Annual Decline Since 1945

By Shobhana Chandra

Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. lost more jobs in 2008 than in any year since 1945 as employers fired another 524,000 people in December, indicating a free-fall in the economy just days before President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

“Consumers are now going to get more and more scared at the prospect of losing their job,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. Obama’s proposed fiscal stimulus “needs to be big, needs to be bold, needs to be swift. If they can do something quickly we can limit the hemorrhage by mid-year.”

The Labor Department reported that the nation lost 2.589 million jobs in 2008, just shy of the 2.75 million decline at the end of World War II. The unemployment rate climbed more than economists forecast, to 7.2 percent in December, the highest level in almost 16 years.

Today’s figures will intensify pressure on U.S. lawmakers to act quickly on Obama’s recovery program, which may exceed $775 billion and aims to save or create 3 million jobs. They also underscore the urgency of the Federal Reserve’s $200 billion initiative to restart consumer financing markets that’s scheduled to begin next month.

The outlook for jobs this year is no brighter as retailers from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to Macy’s Inc. slash profit forecasts and manufacturers including Alcoa Inc. cut output and staff.

Stocks, Treasuries

Stock-index futures rose initially, before equities fell in regular trading. Treasuries were little changed, while the dollar rose on relief among some investors that the payroll drop wasn’t bigger. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index fell 1.6 percent to 894.86 at 10:23 a.m. in New York. Benchmark 10-year note yields were at 2.43 percent. The dollar rose 1 percent to $1.3568 per euro.

Payrolls were forecast to drop 525,000 after a previously reported 533,000 decline in November, according to the median estimate of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Revisions subtracted 154,000 from payroll figures previously reported for November and October.

The jobless rate was projected to jump to 7 percent from a previously reported 6.7 percent in November.

Losses last month were widespread, with manufacturers, builders, retailers and temporary-help agencies axing positions.

Companies are also cutting back employees’ working hours in an effort to limit labor costs. The average work week shrank to a record-low 33.3 hours, today’s figures showed.

‘Full Throttle’

“This was the most rapid deterioration in the labor market over a six-month period since 1975,” said Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners LP in Greenwich, Connecticut. “Policy makers will go full throttle” until “the labor market starts to turn,” he said.

Obama is pressing for a stimulus plan including tax cuts and spending on everything from roads and schools to the energy network. Yesterday he called for “dramatic action as soon as possible” to help pull the world’s largest economy out of a slump that’s in its second year. “If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years,” he said in Fairfax, Virginia.

Fed policy makers are planning to start a new program next month aimed at shoring up the market for financing car purchases, credit card loans and student debt. Officials announced the effort in November at the same time as initiating a $600 billion program to purchase debt issued or backed by government-chartered housing finance companies.

Fed’s Response

The central bank has already lowered its benchmark interest rate to zero to 0.25 percent, aiming to bring down borrowing costs. Officials’ main focus is now taking unorthodox steps termed by analysts as quantitative easing to boost the supply of credit in the economy.

“For policy makers, there is a message” in today’s figures, said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re in New York. “It obviously gives a big boost to Obama’s quite large stimulus package. The Fed will continue to do quantitative easing with rates so low.”

Obama’s economic aides and lawmakers are also discussing ways to deploy the second half of the Treasury’s $700 billion financial-rescue fund. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank favors using some funds to stem mortgage foreclosures, aid issuers of municipal bonds and help homebuyers.

With today’s report, the Labor Department revised figures from its household survey, which includes the unemployment rate, going back five years. Benchmark revisions to the payroll figures will be announced in February.

12th Decline

Last month’s decline was the 12th consecutive drop in payrolls. The economy created 1.1 million jobs in 2007.

During President George W. Bush’s two terms in office, the economy generated a net 3 million jobs, compared with 22.8 million created during the eight years when Bill Clinton was president.

Bush leaves office with unemployment at 7.2 percent, compared with the 4.2 percent rate he inherited from Clinton in January 2001. Unemployment was 7.3 percent when Clinton took office in January 1993, the last month that the jobless rate was higher than now.

Workers’ average hourly wages rose 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $18.36 from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 3.7 percent higher than December 2007. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.2 percent increase from November and a 3.6 percent gain for the 12-month period.

Today’s report showed factory payrolls shrank 149,000, the biggest drop since August 2001. Economists had forecast a drop of 100,000. The decrease included a loss of 21,400 jobs in auto and parts industries. Manufacturing, which makes up 12 percent of the economy, shrank in December at the fastest pace in 28 years, Institute for Supply Management figures showed.

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Capital Gold Group Report: Merrill Lynch says rich turning to gold bars for safety

Merrill Lynch has revealed that some of its richest clients are so alarmed by the state of the financial system and signs of political instability around the world that they are now insisting on the purchase of gold bars, shunning derivatives or “paper” proxies.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 10:54PM GMT 08 Jan 2009

Rich investors are spurning gold exchange traded funds in favour of krugerrands.

Gary Dugan, the chief investment officer for the US bank, said there has been a remarkable change in sentiment. “People are genuinely worried about what the world is going to look like in 2009. It is amazing how many clients want physical gold, not ETFs,” he said, referring to exchange trade funds listed in London, New York, and other bourses.

“They are so worried they want a portable asset in their house. I never thought I would be getting calls from clients saying they want a box of krugerrands,” he said.

Merrill predicted that gold would soon blast through its all time-high of $1,030 an ounce, and would hit $1,150 by June.

The metal should do well whatever happens. If deflation sets in and rocks the economic system it will serve as a safe-haven, but if massive monetary stimulus gains traction and sets off inflation once again it will also come into its own as a store of value. “It’s win-win either way,” said Mr Dugan.

He added that deflation may prove the greater risk in coming months. “It’s very difficult to get the deflation psychology out of the human brain once prices start falling. People stop buying things because they think it will be cheaper if they wait.”

Merrill expects global inflation to hover near zero, with rates of minus 1pc in the industrial economies. This means that yields on AAA sovereign bonds now at 3pc will offer a real return of 4pc a year, which is stellar in this grim climate. “Don’t start selling your government bonds,” Mr Dugan said, dismissing talk of a bond bubble as misguided.

He warned that the eurozone was likely to come under strain this year as slump deepens. “There is going to be friction as governments in the south start talking politically about coming out of the euro.
I don’t see the tensions in Greece as a one-off. It is a sign of social strain in countries that have lost competitiveness.”

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